The European Commission presented the Summer 2021 Economic Forecast. As the first quarter of the year exceeded expectations and national COVID-19 restrictions were eased, the European economy is expected to rebound faster than expected. Real GDP is forecasted to return to pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of 2021, one quarter earlier than projected in the Spring Forecast.

Virus containment strategies and vaccination campaigns contributed to infections decreasing and hospitalisations, which allowed Member States to reopen, benefitting especially service sector businesses. A specific analysis is dedicated to the tourism sector, which still suffered from movement restrictions in early 2021. First signs of a slow recovery were seen in April and May thanks to domestic tourism, with EU cross-border tourism picking up over the long weekends of May. Tourism activities are expected to increase further thanks to the new EU Digital Covid Certificate in the second part of 2021. However, given remaining impediments to cross-border movement for tourists coming from outside the EU, services export will still likely lag behind. Overall, the expected growth impulse coming from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RFF), which is expected to produce 672,5 billion euros in loans and grants, remains unchanged from the Spring Forecast.

Inflation rates have been revised higher, but they are expected to gradually moderate in 2022. Uncertainties and risks remain high, but overall balanced. The risks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and variants are also linked to vaccination campaigns. Commission Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis praised the consumer confidence and tourism trends, encouraging for a closer monitoring of the new coronavirus variant to ensure that travelling remains safe.